BAGHDAD, Nov 3, 2025 (AFP) – Iraq will hold parliamentary elections on November 11, with analysts suggesting that Iran is closely monitoring the vote, hoping to maintain its influence over the country following its diminished regional leverage during the Gaza conflict.
In recent years, Iran-backed groups, including Palestinian militants Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, have suffered significant losses at the hands of Israel. Iran itself was also struck by an unprecedented Israeli bombing campaign in June, which saw the brief involvement of the United States, and further losses occurred with the overthrow of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad last year.
Weakened regionally, Iran now seeks to consolidate its power in Iraq, which has become a cornerstone of its regional influence since the US invasion of 2003. Tehran wields significant influence in Baghdad through Shiite political parties that play a pivotal role in appointing prime ministers — including the current premier, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani — as well as through allied armed factions.
“Tehran retains its influence as long as its allies hold decision-making power,” said political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari.
Iraq has long walked a fine line between Tehran and Washington, becoming a battleground for proxy conflicts. During the Gaza war, pro-Iranian groups took responsibility for firing on US positions in Iraq, prompting retaliatory strikes from the United States. However, these groups refrained from involvement in the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict, even after the US joined the bombing campaign.
Analyst Munqith Dagher remarked, “Iran is no longer in a position to impose its conditions.” But he added, “That does not mean it will not try to exert influence.”
A Divided Parliament
In the 2021 general election, the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr’s faction won the most seats, but Sadr later withdrew from parliament. This left the Coordination Framework, a pro-Iran coalition, in control of the legislature, bringing Sudani to power.
For this upcoming election, Sadr has chosen not to participate, describing the poll as “flawed” and dominated by “sectarian, ethnic, and partisan interests.” He has urged his supporters to boycott the vote.
The upcoming elections will be the sixth since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. However, there are growing signs of voter apathy. According to Chatham House, “participation may fall to the lowest level since 2003,” as Iraqis increasingly view elections as “a performative act with little impact on governance.”
More than 21 million voters are eligible to elect 329 lawmakers, who will then appoint a new president — a largely ceremonial position — and a prime minister, following lengthy negotiations. Traditionally, the prime minister is a Shiite, the presidency is given to a Kurd, and the speaker of parliament is usually Sunni.
US Influence in Iraq’s Future
Observers also point to the United States’ influence over Iraq’s political future. Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie, a former adviser to Sudani, noted that there is “a real desire on the part of the US to change the domestic political landscape” in order to reduce Iran’s influence.
Washington has imposed sanctions on Iraqis accused of helping Tehran evade US sanctions and has sought to strengthen its economic presence in Iraq through contracts in sectors such as oil, technology, and healthcare. Tamer Badawi, an analyst with the UK defence think tank RUSI, stated, “Washington expects the next prime minister to deliver tangible steps that limit Iranian influence, regardless of the electoral outcome.”
“The United States does not want to see Iran-aligned groups retaining operational autonomy,” he continued, adding, “Nor does Washington want Iran to use Iraq as a channel to resell oil products or secure access to hard currency.”
Washington also maintains around 2,500 troops in Iraq and another 900 in Syria as part of the international coalition against the Islamic State (ISIS).
Mark Savaya, the new US special envoy to Iraq, emphasised the importance of a “fully sovereign Iraq, free from malign external interference, including from Iran and its proxies.” He said on social media last month, “There is no place for armed groups operating outside the authority of the state.”
A Crucial Election for Iraq
The election will also include the autonomous Kurdistan region, where a historic rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan remains strong. At least 25 percent of the parliamentary seats must be allocated to women, according to Iraq’s quota system, which also reserves nine seats for minorities.
More than 7,700 candidates are standing for election, nearly a third of whom are women. With a population of approximately 46 million, the outcome of these elections will play a crucial role in shaping Iraq’s political future, and potentially its relationship with both Iran and the United States.