The year 2025 proved to be one of transformation for the banking sector. On one hand, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) surged at an unprecedented pace, while on the other, applications for new bank charters—so-called ‘de novo’ banks—also rose markedly. Analysts predict that these trends will not only continue in 2026 but are likely to deepen and broaden, as the events of 2025 set the stage for larger-scale developments in the coming year.
According to data, the US banking sector witnessed a total of 181 completed mergers and acquisitions in 2025. Brian Graham, co-founder of financial advisory firm Claros Group, suggests that this number could nearly double in 2026. Driving this growth are accumulated pressures from a decade of slower deal-making and a more streamlined regulatory review process. Political uncertainty, particularly in the lead-up to the midterm and 2028 elections, is also motivating banks to conclude deals proactively, anticipating potential policy shifts.
Smaller and mid-sized banks face significant challenges in this environment. Limited potential buyers have created a more constrained market, heightening the risk for smaller institutions seeking to sell. Conversely, larger banks are actively pursuing acquisitions, intensifying competition for attractive targets.
The rise of new bank formation is another notable development. In 2025, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) received 18 applications for new charters. Michelle Alter, co-founder of Claros Group, forecasts that 2026 could see approximately 25 applications, with several high-profile names already filing at the start of the year, signalling sustained interest from new entrants.
Regulatory dynamics may also shift in 2026. Some restrictions were relaxed in 2025, yet newly appointed regulators from the previous administration are expected to reassess the framework, potentially introducing stricter oversight. This could increase compliance costs and risk-management obligations for banks across the board.
A summary of 2025 outcomes and expected 2026 trends is presented below:
| Area | 2025 Snapshot | Expected 2026 Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Mergers & Acquisitions | 181 deals | Near doubling in volume |
| New Bank Applications | 18 applications | Approximately 25 applications |
| Small Bank Position | Reliant on mid-sized banks | Risk of buyer scarcity |
| Regulatory Framework | Some restrictions eased | Potentially stricter enforcement |
Overall, 2026 is poised to be a year of both opportunity and challenge for the banking sector. Established banks, smaller institutions, and new entrants alike will need to adopt strategic foresight to navigate a market shaped by heightened competition, evolving regulations, and political uncertainty.