Bangladesh’s central bank has detected signs of a potential plot by vested interest groups to destabilise the country’s foreign-exchange market, amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Officials at Bangladesh Bank believe that certain actors are attempting to create an artificial dollar shortage by spreading rumours that the exchange rate could surge to Tk130 per US dollar. Such speculation, they warn, is designed to trigger panic and enable opportunistic gains.
In response, the regulator has significantly strengthened its monitoring and oversight of market activities. It has also temporarily suspended its routine dollar purchases from the interbank market to avoid adding pressure on the exchange rate during this sensitive period.
The move comes against the backdrop of escalating conflict involving United States, Israel, and Iran, which has unsettled global financial markets. Bangladesh, heavily reliant on remittance inflows from Gulf countries, remains particularly exposed to such external shocks.
Despite the market anxiety, underlying indicators suggest a relatively strong position. Foreign-exchange reserves held by commercial banks have increased substantially, driven by robust remittance inflows.
Key Forex Indicators (March 2026)
| Indicator | February 2026 | March 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Forex Holdings (USD billion) | 2.30 | 3.90 |
| Monthly Remittance Inflow (USD bn) | — | 3.77 |
| Interbank Exchange Rate (Tk/USD) | — | 122.85 |
| Remittance Purchase Rate (Tk/USD) | — | 123.50 |
| Kerb Market Rate (Tk/USD) | — | 125.50 |
In March 2026, Bangladesh recorded its highest-ever monthly remittance inflow at $3.77 billion, with more than 70 per cent originating from Gulf nations. This surge has contributed to a notable rise in banks’ foreign-currency holdings, which climbed from $2.30 billion in February to $3.90 billion in March.
Market participants report that the US dollar was traded at Tk122.85 in the interbank market, while banks purchased remittances at rates as high as Tk123.50. The kerb market, however, reflected a higher rate of Tk125.50, indicating a divergence between formal and informal exchange channels.
Central bank officials have also noted a sharp increase in banks’ net open position (NOP), which has now exceeded $1.0 billion. Under normal circumstances, such a level would prompt the central bank to intervene by purchasing dollars, but no such action has been taken since the onset of the Middle East crisis.
There are also concerns over increased forward bookings by some banks, which may be contributing to artificial demand for dollars and pushing up exchange rates. The regulator has warned that it is closely monitoring several institutions and may dispatch inspection teams if irregularities are identified.
According to M Masrur Reaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, global financial instability linked to the Middle East conflict is already affecting vulnerable economies. He added that expectations of future energy price adjustments could further encourage speculative behaviour in the foreign-exchange market.
While Bangladesh’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain broadly stable, the central bank’s heightened vigilance reflects growing concern that market sentiment—and possible manipulation—may be exerting undue influence on the exchange rate.