Bank of America’s Chief Executive Officer, Brian Moynihan, has revised his outlook for the United States economy in 2026, projecting an encouraging growth rate of 2.8%. This forecast significantly exceeds prevailing market expectations and is being driven largely by robust consumer spending and substantial corporate investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
Moynihan also suggested that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by mid-year, creating a more favourable economic climate. He commented, “The ability of consumers to spend, coupled with corporate investment in AI, is providing a fresh impetus for the US economy.”
Consumer Spending: The Engine of Growth
Moynihan emphasised that American consumers remain the backbone of the nation’s economic expansion. According to Bank of America’s aggregated card transaction data, consumer expenditure in Q4 2025 rose by 5% compared to the same quarter in 2024, representing approximately $1.5 trillion in economic activity. Preliminary data for January 2026 suggests that this positive trend is continuing.
Growth has been further bolstered by increased sales in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and rising employee wages. “When consumer spending rises, the broader economy strengthens, and the cycle of production and investment accelerates,” Moynihan explained.
Artificial Intelligence Investment: Driving Productivity
Moynihan highlighted that strong corporate cash flows and accessible capital markets are enabling companies to invest heavily in AI systems and data centres. Bank of America itself is allocating several hundred million dollars to AI projects in 2026. These investments are expected to enhance productivity and restructure business operations across multiple sectors.
Economic Forecast 2026
| Region/Country | GDP Growth Forecast 2026 |
|---|---|
| United States | 2.8% |
| India | 6.5% |
| Europe | ~1% |
Moynihan anticipates that the Federal Reserve could implement multiple interest rate cuts towards the end of the year. Bank of America’s Q4 2025 net income rose by 18%, with revenues increasing 7%, reflecting both the bank’s financial resilience and strategic confidence.
Market Response
The US stock market, as measured by the US500 index, rose 0.21% on 23 January 2026, closing at 6,928 points. Bank of America shares (BAC) closed at $52.07 on 21 January, having peaked at $57.25 on 6 January 2026. Investor sentiment remains buoyed by AI-related investment and technological innovation.
In summary, strong consumer expenditure combined with strategic AI investment is keeping the US economy on a steady growth trajectory, even as trade policies and tariff-related uncertainties continue to pose potential challenges. Analysts suggest that these trends could signal a more resilient and innovative economic landscape for 2026.